BabyTalk #24

by Tom Carley

 


 

The KENTUCKY DERBY picture is a fortnight away – kind of “a calm before the storm”. Next week with the post-draw and horses shipping into Louisville, the action gets hectic, and you still need to find time to pick a winner. This week I will analyze the Derby, modifying that old game “20 questions” to ask at least one question for each contender.

The field listed by Derby points:


International Star 

Why is this horse so overlooked after winning so convincingly in Louisiana? Will he change leads and get the same dream trips he has in his prior races?


Dortmund

Can a horse this large (no horse won the Derby in the last 30 years at 17 hands) navigate into the crowded first turn and still keep that long stride?


Carpe Diem

How will he handle the paddock and post-parade Derby day?  Can he break the 0 for 44 slump of Storm Cat descendants in the Derby? Is he improving at the right time? Can he run tactical against the faster pace than he got in Dubai?


American Pharoah

American Pharoah    Proved he could rate last out. Is he as good as they think? With his long time away from the track, are the 2 easy races in Arkansas enough of a foundation for the Derby?


Frosted

Has the surgery done enough to make me forget the way he stopped in the Fountain of Youth? Is he worth all the recent attention?


Mubtaahij

Can this horse travel all the way from Dubai, without his groom, his feed and his susceptibility to respiratory infections? I still lean toward yes based on the trainer.


Materiality

Can he break the Apollo curse and continue the improvement?


El Kabeir

Does he really belong here? Pace set up should benefit a closer, but can he get 10 furlongs? Borel is always a threat on Derby day.


Upstart  

He never runs a bad race. Why is he so overlooked? An upset special.


Far Right

Will he get too close on the rail as he likes in a crowded field?


Itsaknockout

Which horse will show up? The one who chased down Upstart or the one who did not show up in the Florida Derby?


Firing Line 

Can he learn to rate today as he can’t take this field gate to wire?


Danzig Moon

Can he take the recent improvement to the next step? Interesting


War Story

Can he learn to break from the gate and finally run a race up to his potential?


Tencendur 

Was the Wood Memorial the best he can do or is there one more step up?


Stanford

How does this speed-horse take the field 10 furlongs?


Mr. Z

Why is he here? He lost 11 races in a row.


Ocho Ocho Ocho

How does this little guy push his way into position?


Bolo

Why don’t the connections take this one back to the turf?


MadefromLucky

Would this horse even be third best in his own bar?


Much more info to come in the next week. Relax and get ready for the fun.

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